El Nino looming. Should I be really concerned about it?
The latest from the Bureau of Meterology’s Climate Mate:
With a strong El Niño event now firmly established, likely peaking in late spring or summer and expected to persist into autumn 2027, the risk of a later start to the wet season, below average rainfall, heatwaves and increased climate variability remains elevated.
Now is an important time to review feed budgets, water supplies, stocking rates and management trigger points before conditions tighten.
A strong El Niño does not necessarily mean strong impacts on Australia’s climate.
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is only one of several factors that can influence Australia’s spring and summer seasonal conditions, and climate drivers rarely work in isolation.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), sea surface temperatures and other atmospheric patterns can interact with El Niño, shifting the odds towards wetter, drier, warmer or cooler conditions.
That said, the current outlook warrants careful preparation rather than complacency.
What can I do?
Plan ahead and monitor. Outlooks can change as the season unfolds, so closely monitoring climate influences and seasonal conditions can help you prepare for the opportunities and challenges ahead.
It’s not about predicting the future. It’s about understanding the odds, staying flexible and making more informed decisions as conditions change.
Keep a close eye on the Southern Hemisphere Outlooks for updates on the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Currently in a neutral phase, models suggest a positive IOD will develop during winter and persist into spring, although there remains some uncertainty in its timing and strength.
If a positive IOD develops alongside El Niño, it may reinforce drying influences across parts of eastern Australia.
The sea surface temperature (SST) analysis shows warmer than average waters around most of Australia and near average temperatures to most of the north.
Warm waters increase the potential for rainfall but do not guarantee it. Rainfall still depends on weather systems being able to access and lift that moisture.
Continue to monitor Long-range forecasts as the season approaches and conditions evolve.
The historical El Niño evolution maps are useful for showing how rainfall and temperature patterns have evolved during past moderate to strong El Niño years.
They are not a forecast, but they do provide helpful context for what can happen when ENSO is active.
The Bureau of Meteorology is indicating an increased chance of a later rainfall onset across eastern and far northern parts of Australia.
The Northern Rainfall Onset (NOR) forecast gives an indication of whether the first significant rains after 1 September are likely to be earlier or later than their normal onset date (based on historical observations, 1981–2018).
The NRO is best viewed as a planning tool rather than a rainfall forecast. Remember, the first significant rainfall event does not always mean the growing season has started.
While nothing is certain, keeping an eye on seasonal variability and planning before conditions change can help reduce risk and protect your business.
The aim isn’t to predict exactly what the season will bring, but to be ready to respond to a range of possible outcomes and avoid being caught off guard when conditions change.
Take time to review your management options and consider how your business would respond to climate variability.
Plan for uncertainty. Build flexibility. Be ready to adapt.
Generally, El Nino’s impact on Australian rainfall has diminished from November onwards, so that during summer, the influence of El Nino on rainfall has been low, especially as the season progressed. The most significant exception if the east of Cape York, where there has typically been a tendency towards below-average rainfall.
